Joey Logano is statistically number four of the group. He only has two wins on the season, one a Talladega and a thrilling finish using the bump-and-run on Martin Truex Jr. at Martinsville to secure his spot into the Championship 4. With 12 top fives and 25 top tens, Logano has had the consistency to make it through, and is more than capable of winning in any given weekend, including this weekend at Homestead. Logano has two previous appearances in the Championship 4, 2014 and 2016. I don’t think Logano will capture the Monster Energy Cup in his third visit to the Championship 4.
It’s not that I don’t think he’s capable so much as the competition is at such a high level. Also, I’m not sure if the NASCAR community at large is ready to have Joey Logano has their champion. While yes, he’s been in the series for 11 years (wow, that’s impressive) his break out didn’t happen until 2014, getting five wins on the season. Perhaps it’s his age, maybe that quirky smile, or something else. I can’t put my finger on it, but aside from the large Logano fan base, I just don’t think the NASCAR fan base is ready for Logano.
Martin Truex Jr. is the reigning Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Champion. He won last year’s title, capping off a storybook year that saw he, and the Denver, CO based team dominate the season. This year, Truex has again had impressive numbers with four wins, 19 top fives and 20 top tens. He has also had the smothering cloud of impending doom over his head, as his team, Furniture Row Racing, announced prior to the NASCAR Playoffs that due to the departure of sponsor 5 Hour Energy, that the team would be shutting down following the 2018 racing season.
The lame-duck status of the team, the fact that they are defending champions, and the pure raw talent of Truex and the team easily make a second MTJ/FRR championship the sure fire top sentimental storyline. I don’t think sentiment is going to be enough, however. Outside of the ROVAL, where Truex came within one corner of the victory but was taken out by Jimmie Johnson, Truex hasn’t been quite as strong as his competition in the 2018 NASCAR Playoffs. He hasn’t scored a victory since July at Kentucky and while always a threat at mile and half tracks, his performance at the mile and halfs in the Playoffs has just been a little off when compared to the other three. For that reason, while a truly awesome story, I don’t see Martin Truex Jr. winning the championship this year.
Kyle Busch, with eight wins in the season going into Homestead, has by all accounts had his most successful season in the Cup Series thus far. He is a threat at every race, and every track. He has had several races where he has been the outright favorite, but in addition to having the overall performance needed to win, Kyle Busch and the number 18 team have been benefactors on multiple occasions of opportunity. Looking back at Phoenix, for example. That was a race that looked to be Kevin Harvick’s race to lose… and he did. After a cut tire, and penalty for pitting too soon prior to a stage end, Harvick was in catch up mode for the remainder of the race, and by the time he made back to the front, Busch was solidly in control of his destiny, fending off a late charge by Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola.
While Kyle Busch is without a doubt capable of winning on Sunday, I don’t see him picking up title number two. It is so difficult to have to choose just one driver for the championship, but only one can win. I think the fact that Kyle’s had so many opportunistic situations will be the deciding factor. Anything can happen, but I placing my championship eggs in the freaky fast basket of Kevin Harvick.
Kevin Harvick, with eight wins, has been dominant in the 2018 NASCAR Playoffs. He has led the most laps of any other driver and if not for some very huge missteps along the way, could have had even more wins tacked onto his total. He has had dominant cars in every round, but has had a ton of bad breaks along the way with cut tires, penalties and pit road mishaps. Oh yeah, let’s not forget the penalty after Texas for the unapproved spoiler. Throughout it all, Harvick has fought back and fought hard, always finding a way to remain in striking distance.
If Kevin Harvick and company can avoid the mishaps that have plagued their playoff run, then I think that Kevin Harvick can, and will emerge as the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
Upset: So far under the current playoff format, each champion has been crowned at Homestead after winning the race as well. Could 2018 be the first year to see a non-playoff driver win at Homestead under this format? If so, I think that Kyle Larson is the guy to do it. Larson is very strong at Homestead, and even stronger at tracks that feature the use of the highest, rim-riding groove. Plus, Larson has shown a knack for racing well at tracks that feature well-worn surfaces, Homestead falling into that category as well. If a Championship 4 driver doesn’t win this thing, it will be because Kyle Larson got to the finish line first.
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